Pirates vs Mets Predictions, Picks, Odds — 7-8

Mets rookie Christian Scott has had mediocre results thus far and has been worse away from Citi Field. That doesn’t bode well for the right-handed opponent of Pirates’ Mitch Keller. Expect Pittsburgh’s offense, particularly Bryan Reynolds, to play a role today.

Ed Scimia - Betting Analyst at Covers.com

Jul 8, 2024 • 08:46 ET

• 4 min read

The New York Mets are looking to end the first half of the season on a positive note as they take on the Pittsburgh Pirates at PNC Park in the final game of their four-game series.

New York came back late in the game on Sunday to win. I’ll analyze if they can pull out a win as the underdog in my Mets vs. Pirates predictions.

Read on for my favorite MLB picks from Monday, July 8.

Mets vs Pirates Prediction

My best chance
Pirates moneyline (-108 at FanDuel)

My analysis

The New York Mets have revived their season by turning what was once a stagnant offense into one of the more productive units in the league over the past month. However, they still suffer from a lack of starting pitching depth, and that could prove to be a problem for them in today’s game against the Pittsburgh Pirates.

New York sends 25-year-old rookie Christian Scott to the mound this afternoon. While there are some promising signs, he hasn’t done anything particularly well enough to make an impact at the MLB level.

Scott’s strikeout rate (7.3 per nine innings) is mediocre, he has allowed four homers in his first 33 1/3 innings of work, and his control is average. In his last start, he allowed four runs on six hits over 5 2/3 innings of work against the Washington Nationals, a team with a similar offensive punch to the Pirates.

While it’s too early to draw definitive conclusions, it’s notable that Scott has struggled on foreign soil. At Citi Field, he’s posted a whopping 0.94 WHIP in his first three starts. That number has jumped to 1.35 on foreign soil, with a noticeably lower strikeout rate.

Meanwhile, the Pirates counter with Mitch Keller, who was their de facto ace before the incredible Paul Skenes emerged. Keller is 9-5 with a 3.48 ERA and solid peripherals, including a 1.25 WHIP.

Like Scott, Keller has performed much better at home than away this year, with his ERA down nearly a point at PNC Park.

The Mets were lucky to come away with a win on Sunday, and face a tougher matchup today in the series finale. I’m counting on the Pirates to win, and I hope to do so in one of the few books that have this game as a straight pick ’em matchup

Mets vs Pirates parlay for same game (SGP)

FanDuel logo

Pirate Money Line

More than 8.5

Bryan Reynolds to record hit

While I’d like to see the Pirates close out the first half of the season with a win, I’m not so enamored with the pitching matchup. So I’ll start my same-game parlay by pegging the Pirates to a win with the Over. The Pittsburgh offense should have a chance against Scott, while the Mets have been scoring more runs lately, making the 8.5 total seem more than achievable.

Bryan Reynolds has at least one hit in four of his last five games and is hitting a solid .279 against right-handed pitching this season.

Learn how to bet on a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Mets vs Pirates Odds

Mets vs Pirates live odds

Mets vs Pirates Opening Odds

  • Running line: New York -1.5 (+155) | Pittsburgh +1.5 (-185)
  • Moneyline: New York -105 | Pittsburgh -115
  • Over/Under: More than 8.5 (-120) | Less than 8.5 (+100)

Mets vs Pirates Spread and Over/Under Analysis

  • The Mets are 1-5 in Scott’s starts this season, while the Pirates are 11-6 when Keller takes the mound.
  • Neither team has fared well against the moneyline this season, with New York losing about a unit for the year and Pittsburgh losing more than five units to backers.
  • The Pirates average 8.46 runs per game, while the Mets average 9.59 runs per game.
  • With the Over variation, New York has a 46-39 lead, while the Under variation has a 46-40 lead when Pittsburgh plays.

Mets vs Pirates trend

The Pirates are 8-2 in Keller’s last 10 starts overall. Find more MLB betting trends for Mets vs. Pirates

Mets vs Pirates game information

Place: PNC Park, Pittsburgh, PA
Date: Monday 7-8-2024
First throw: 12:35 PM ET
TV: SNY, SportNet Pittsburgh
Mets starting pitcher: Christian Scot
(0-2, ERA of 4.32)
Pirates starting pitcher: Mitch Keller
(9-5, 3.48 ERA)

Mets vs Pirates Latest Injuries

Mets vs Pirates again

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